Once again I  do a review of  the valuation of various MSCI country Indices that interest me. My last similar article is here. All data is as of today (May 17 2008).
MSCI Korea: 10Yr annualized returns: 23.40%, P/E=17.23, P/B=2.62, Samsung=16% of Index.
MSCI Taiwan: 10Yr annualized returns: 2.09%, P/E=17.49,/ P/B=2.67,  Taiwan Semiconductor =11.6% of index.
MSCI Singapore: 10Yr annualized returns: 11.05%, P/E=14.71,  P/B=2.72, Financials=51.48% of index.
MSCI Sweden:  10Yr annualized returns: 11.05%, P/E=13.73,  P/B=3.55, Ericcson=11.93%, Financials=23% of index.
Based on a simplistic analysis of the above I  had bought  Korea which then had the lowest P/E.  Now that  I am reviewing the valuation I see no need to change my holdings in Korea. Singapore looks cheap, but with Financials being a major part of the Index  I am not sure if now is the right time to buy more.
Why look at Sweden?  I just recalled from memory a  chart from Jeremy Seigels "Stocks for the long run"  which shows  Sweden has the best long term return from equities; just slightly better than the US.
Disclaimer: I already own the Lyxor Korea ETF .
I am not sure if the numbers above include reinvested dividends. The P/E also seems to be different from other estimates I have seen, possibly because they may be using only annual figures and not TTM and also because the more bullish analysts usually mention forward P/E instead of trailing P/E.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
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