Top ETF picks for the next decade.

The last ten years have seen the Asian financial crisis, the rise and fall of the dot-coms, the real estate boom and bust, the Iraq War, and the present credit crunch. I feel that the next ten will be no different with assorted manias, depressions, bubbles and wars occurring just like they have always done before. I see no reason why the next decade will be any better or worse than the last. Here are some ETFs that I feel will do well as suggested by their back tested performance over the last decade.

My top pick for all low risk investors is the DPN ETF . Its Index and back tested performance is described here . Historical data suggests that the consumer staples sector offers good returns with low volatility.

My pick for the next decade for those who do not care about volatility is is the DGS ETF . Its Index and back tested performance is described here . If you are not worried by an occasional 50% fall in value then dividend paying emerging market small cap stocks offer the highest rewards. Even after suffering an initial 50% drop in the Asian financial crisis this index has returned 20% annualized since 1998. Emerging markets

All the index links above show back tested results for the last decade so you can get an idea of the expected volatility and possible returns.

As you can see I like Fundamental Indexing, I own other ETFs from WisdomTree which creates these ETFs. The particular ETFs above were not available when I was last able to invest so I have ended up with some other stuff (DEM and DFE).

ETFs are funds but may be bought on the stock exchange like any other stock. there is no entry or exit load but there is brokerage. The underlying fund usually has a low annual expense ratio, usually .6% to 0.7% for the Wisdomtree ETFs.

Personal portfolio

Here is what I own and why.

• Indian Mutual Funds
• HDFC Equity - Not merely outperforming but crushing the indices for 10 years. Manager Prashant Jain has been around with the same fund team for a decade (Zurich then taken over by HDFC). He took over this fund a few years ago when its previous manager Chandresh Nigam left. Knowing that Prashant has an exceptional record with HDFC prudence I decided to retain this fund.
  
• HDFC Prudence - Prashant Jain - manager since 1994. Outstanding record - see the link for yourself. Formerly the fund was a balanced fund 60% equity 40% debt, Now it is an "Equity Oriented fund"70% equity 30% debt. The recent increase in Equity allocation is to take advantage of Indian Tax laws that state - no taxes on equity oriented funds held for more than one year. I am no fan of mutual funds, these have sales loads of 2.5% and annual expenses of 2% but their returns have more than made up for that. I do not like balanced funds either, there is no reason why any long term investor should hold bonds in his portfolio. HDFC equity is preferable to HDFC prudence unless you have some expenditure planned in the coming years and want to limit your downside. I bought this fund a year or so ago as I wanted less downside due to foreseen personal expenses. Now that those expenses are paid for I intend to sell and move to a 100% equity portfolio. The best time to sell this however eludes me. I would wait for a dip in the markets to sell this and buy either HDFC equity ( a no load switch within the same fund house ) or Franklin Opportunities ( will have to pay load).
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• International ETF's
• DFE - See the Index here. Small value stocks from Europe. Fits in nicely with my theme of owning small value stocks. I like the Wisdomtree dividend weighted Indices.
  
• EWY - MSCI Korea was cheap compared to Singapore and Taiwan when I last looked. Was bought when there was tension with the neighbor to the north. I do not own EWY but the equivalent Lyxor MSCI Korea ETF trading on the Singapore Exchange.
• International Stocks
• Bright World Precision Machinery - Turned up on a Greenblatt style low P/E, high ROE , no long term debt screen. Bought on the Singapore Exchange. I usually sell such stocks when they cross a P/E of 20.
• Second Chance Properties - Turned up on a high dividend yield screen. Bought on the Singapore Exchange. Need to review this when latest results come out.
  
• Food Junction -- Turned up on a high dividend yield screen. Bought on the Singapore Exchange. Company faced a recent setback in china. Need to review this. See recent discussions here.
  
• 0878.hk -- Soundwill Holdings. Low P/Book stock. Thanks to "idoke" on the chucks_angels yahoo group for suggesting this one. Bought on the Hong Kong exchange.
• 0557.hk-- City e-Solutions. Low P/Book stock. Thanks to "deepmarginofsafety" on the chucks_angels yahoo group for suggesting this one. Bought on the Hong Kong exchange.
• Brk-b - Berkshire Hathaway. Have discussed this in previous posts. This is where I park cash when I have no better ideas.
• Recent Sells:
• Sinwa - Greenblatt style pick. Bought on SGX. Reached exit point of 20 P/E.
• STI - Streettracks Straits Times Index ETF. Like the MSCI Singapore index (EWS) but with many more stocks. Trades on the Singapore Exchange. Attempted sell when the STI hit a P/E of 20. Sell order failed, have to investigate.
• 2600.hk - Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (Chalco, ADR is ACH) . Was a low P/Book pick. Looks like I miscalculated P/Book. Sold as soon as I realized error. Will not ever trust yahoo finance for my data. Was lucky to make a profit.
  

What I do not own but recommend

• My family has investments in assorted tax saving Indian mutual funds and some short term debt funds. Tax saving funds are the best way to make your tax saving investments. Short term debt funds are a good and liquid way to park excess cash you may need in the near future.
• My suggested portfolios for Indian Investors are on the longtermequity yahoo group. These may differ from my personal portfolio.